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NFP - 3rd August, 2012 |
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At the time of generating this report, there are no EURUSD trades on Synergy v3.2 The last trade recorded on our reference account was a short trade based on the H&S pattern. The trade setup is shown below:  A short trade was triggered on formation of the right shoulder of the pattern. The neckline of the pattern provided support and reversal was seen - Reversals from major support or pattern failure will cause the trade to close. The following price action was choppy and the EA does not have any pattern control points as yet. The NFP data release could help the price decide on direction. The consensus expecation is about 100k - price will consolidate to form a tradable channel. A NFP number above 150k or below 50k is expected to cause a major price action shift - possible fallout/breakout trades may be expected in this case. It is advisable to let the EA run without break during the NFP or other news releases. |
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| Why does trades differ on restarting the EA? | ||
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Phibase Synergy is designed to be run 24x7 without break. Normal restarts and update related restarts should not adversely affect results. However, frequent restarts need to be avoided since the possibility of the EA missing out on the advantage of seeing longer term patterns are reduced. Restarts may cause trade differences with other accounts in certain price actions like strong break out/fall out. The trades made at start up are also valid trades and will be profitable with the same success potential as other trades. Changing the EA properties, for example, modifying allocation will not affect the existing trades or cause any major difference in trades. However it is highly advisable not to carry our any restart or EA property modification during very volatile news related moves. Trade difference seen between accounts running v3.0 continuously and accounts which updated to v3.2 on 23rd is detailed below:  The short trade entered on 18th was based on a reversal from a wedge formation on the H1 time frame. A stronger resistance was also present just above the top of the wedge in the form of a channel line. The EA would have added to this position if it found some indicator support or if the price had consolidated nearer to the level shown by the red line. The short trade was carried over the weekend since there was not exit triggers. Synergy V3.2 was delivered on 22nd July 2012. or members who updated the following trade events were seen:  When the EA is started/restarted the initialization modules tries to walk back and identify the most recent tradable pattern. In this case the EA also has a open Short position to manage when it is started. The initialization routine find the last tradable pattern to be the channel sloping support line - The previous wedge pattern based on which the short was taken was no longer valid since the price already fell out of the wedge. So the most recent tradable pattern was the channel support line - the price gapped down exactly at this support level and the EA closes the existing short trade. A reversal LONG is also executed. Later on a short is again triggered based on reversal at W1 support/resistance level. All the trades/events seen with v3.2 on start up were triggered by the predictive pattern algorithm. Since Synergy (even the older versions) are based on H1 time frame, most patterns take atleast 3-7 days to form. Synergy is designed to trade patterns legs as they are formed since it can work in narrow ranges of even 100-200 pips. This is one of the most powerful functions of this EA. This module is only active when there are no pattern formations or when the price is already fallen or broken away from the last pattern formation and anew tradable leg is found. Accounts running v3.0 without updating did not have the LONG on market open like the accounts running v3.2 - since the EA still had the 192 bar channel line for reference. The short was closed only on reversal at lower levels. The Short trade seen on v3.2 was also not taken on the v3.0 since the EA already had a short position. |
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| EFFECTS OF TRADE REVERSALS IN V3.2 | ||
v3.0 and v3.2 have very similar entry logic - the major difference is seen in the trade management modules. v3.2 also features a trade reversal - this simply means that of the EA decides to close out a particular trade due to lack of indicator support/hidden SL trigger, the EA may open a trade in the reverse direction if the channel direction is supportive. The trade reversal feature may cause potential trade differences between some accounts. If one of the user account does not have the original trade then obviously there will not be a reversal trade. During backtests we found that sometimes the reversal can be cyclic - example, Original Short - Reversed Long - Reversed Short . But these are rare occurrences. Any fresh trade trigger will again match the accounts. The above disadvantage was duly considered before going ahead with its implementation since it was good for improving the EA's performance. Many times we find that the EA just closes a trade due to a pattern failure and books the loss - next trade is not taken until a fresh trigger occurs. The logic is that the trades was closed to avoid further loss - since the decision is also taken based on several indicator data and channel direction, reversing trades proved to be a valid strategy. Since v2.2 we have seen very little differences between broker accounts - so we do not see the trade reversal causing too much variation between accounts. The EA can also make its first entry in a direction with 2 positions in the event of multiple trade triggers or multiple pattern call generation. This is one more feature that is new to v3.2 |
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| Disclaimer | ||
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U.S. Government Required
Disclaimer – Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of
risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of
leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to
invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment
objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility
exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial
investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot
afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with
foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial
advisor if you have any doubts. Clearly understand this: Information
contained within this course is not an invitation to trade any specific
investments. Trading requires risking money in pursuit of future gain.
That is your decision. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose.
This document does not take into account your own individual financial
and personal circumstances. It is intended for educational purposes only
and NOT as individual investment advice. Do not act on this without
advice from your investment professional, who will verify what is
suitable for your particular needs & circumstances. Failure to seek
detailed professional personally tailored advice prior to acting could
lead to you acting contrary to your own best interests & could lead to
losses of capital. *CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. By using PhiBase Synergy, you acknowledge that you are familiar with these risks and that you are solely responsible for the outcomes of your decisions. We accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this product. It's to be noted carefully in this respect, that past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. |
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